Tuesday, 24 March 2020

Lockdown of states, self-imposed curfew etc are priorities to control the spread of Covid-19

Corid-19 virus  zhi-in.facebook.com

I request the readers of this blog to read this post carefully and give utmost importance to ''social distancing  or ''self- imposed curfew'' to avoid catching the bug Covid-19.  In the USA, recently on the beaches of Florida  and California I saw   youngsters who  never cared about  the  Fed's  warning to stay at home. This is true of many countries including India. Presently, the entire Indian states are under lockdown and the young people  and others must obey the warnings given by the governments and stay at home as much as possible. India, being the second most populous country, every citizen has a responsibility to see to it  that our country comes out of this most disturbing and agonizing period. We also must take this chance and pray for the welfare of other people across the continents.
Downturn world economy due to conona virus.deccanherald.com
Though scientific research work is going on in many countries to come up with  suitable, viable vaccines and treatments for the  corona virus, in the present scenario, it may be a long wait -  may be  a year from now unless a miracle happens in the near future. Covid -19 is spreading much faster than the summer bush fire and dandelions.  We need to stop it as much as we can.

Many  countries  in Europe, Americas  Africa and Asia are currently in some degree of “lock down'', as a primary precautionary measure  to insulate their people from the  active virus. ”Staying at  home'' to avoid catching or spreading covid-19, the dreaded virus, that causes  respiratory illness;  the best way to take on this devil that came out of China recently is to ''avoid contact''.  With  total closure of restaurants, theaters,  department stores, bus stations, railway stations,  bars,  schools and gyms etc., there will not be any public gathering of people or crowds in urban and semi urban areas, obviously, we deny the opportunities for the viruses to enter hosts.

In the absence of a permanent remedy for this virus, the only available alternative is 'extreme social distancing' or keeping away from social gatherings.   This kind of self-imposed intervention 
or social curfew  will  help individuals stay healthy. This way,  
we  break the chain of transmission  among more vulnerable populations  and providing them a chance  to survive this pandemic.

Unfortunately, in many countries in the early stages of the spread of corona virus, people did not seriously consider self-imposed social distancing   as a way to stop its early transmission and later it resulted in deaths, pain and further spread.   The most important thing is  younger and healthier people, who face a lower risk of severe illness, must remain in their homes as much as possible. If they go out and catch a bug outside, back home, the virus will jump on elderly people at home who are prone to risks. 

According to a  new study from the ''Imperial College of London'', GB ' 'Covid-19 Response Team' the purpose is to reduce reproduction - to reduce the number of people each confirmed case infects.  The goal is to keep reproduction low with each case infecting fewer than one other person, on average. Th study suggests  two routes to try to get there:  

01.  ''Mitigation, “slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection.” This is done by isolating suspected cases and their households, and social distancing the elderly and people at highest risk of serious illness''.
02.  ''Suppression, or basically, lockdown, which “aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels” by social distancing the entire population “indefinitely” and closing schools and universities''.

This interesting, but simple research  has come up with some study models that  show lockdown  is painful, but for many of us, it works.
weforum.org
What are the repercussions  if there  are  no lockdown or social distancing measures?  The answer is:  ''We can expect Peak mortality in approximately three months. In this scenario, 81% of the UK and US populations would be infected, with 510,000 dying in the UK and 2.2 million dying in the US''

On the other hand the advantage is:  ''isolating confirmed and suspected cases and social distancing the elderly and vulnerable would “reduce peak critical care demand by two-thirds and halve the number of deaths.”

 In the light of the research done  by the Imperial college of London,  PM  Sri Modiji's recent order of 14 hour self imposed curfew on March 22 and his later  govt. order to state governments to lockdown respective Indian states is the right approach. A combination of case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and either household quarantine or school and university closure are required."
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/why-lockdowns-work-epidemics-coronavirus-covid19/
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
 https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/public-health-measures-mitigate-covid-19.html